The Summit of Hindsight
The Ukrainian war doesn’t seem to be anywhere near the end. In Zagreb, there’s currently a summit of world leaders trying to work out a solution, offer their support or strategies to help bring the whole sordid thing to an end that would benefit everyone, and Ukrainians first and foremost.
Of course, that’s not entirely true: when Russians annexed Crimea in 2014, the reactions weren’t nearly as resolute and swift as now. Because the situation in the EU was different and everyone could still pretend it’s a fringe issue between two countries neither of which was a part of the Union anyway. Fast forward to 2022, and we have a very different response. Countless amounts of money have been pumped into Zelensky’s military arsenal, an almost unilateral global support, even from countries that are traditionally neutral like Switzerland.
Nancy Pelosi was wearing a red suit to subtly underline the importance of the USA in the whole operation, with pearls bigger than her eyeballs. Now that European middle class (or whatever is left of that) is being told to choose between heating and eating, the top dogs can no longer ignore it. Ukraine turned into a crying baby that needs its nappy promptly changed because it’s full of Russian shit.
A decisive part of escalation was Putin’s conviction that he’ll get away with it again and just waltz into Kyiv without a single bullet fired at them. Or at least that’s what his troops were told, until it dawned on them that people won’t be throwing flowers at them, but hand grenades.
What was supposed to be a quick and successful conquest turned into a wrecking ball that smashed the Russian economy and foreign assets of oligarchs. Consequently, a melodramatic horror was unleashed on cities like Mariupol in revenge for the epic failure of Putin’s original plan. He did what every other supervillain in James Bond’s social circle does: rattle with his nuclear arsenal like a baby crying for attention. And the adults are forced to react because it’s embarassing the guests.
Former German chancellor Angela Merkel tainted her legacy through her insistance to play nice with bullies like Putin. In turn, the country slowly but firmly got dependant on Russian gas and oil without a plan B. Or maybe plan B was the focus on a green economy for the future and relying on sustainable resources. Until it hit them that they have to focus on reality first when the crisis took a needle to their bubble of a system without working nuclear plants.
Instead of totes and reusable packing they might end up buying canned food supplies to prepare for food rationing. Which is exactly what’s emerging now, through ever increasing prices of oil and basic food, with warnings of an apocalyptic existential crisis is just around the corner like a meteor about to hit the Earth in a Hollywood movie.
The post-WW2 age of prosperity is coming to an end, though crumbling might be a better choice of words. A famous philosopher said that millenials will be the first post-war generation that is worse off than their parents and that’s increasingly true. At least where people are used to a slow but steady progress due to being far enough from the hotbeds of military conflicts and political crises. These came knocking on their door through the first waves of immigrants, and it’s not going to slow down.
The global chaos they directly unleashed or chose to ignore is now unleashed upon them and they’re in the eye of the storm. Grocery stores and stock markets might soon turn into a battlefield for the way of life they’re used to. Just like the knot of troubles that’s currently being entangled at the summit in Croatia, it’s a high-risk situation full of delicate lines that need to be walked with utmost care if we don’t want the ground to burst right underneath our feet. Hindsight is always a sobering experience.
Now that everyone is finally aware you can’t expect a dictator to satisfy his ambition before he goes beyond the limits of what’s possible, it’s time to scrape up a plan that everyone can- theoretically, at least-get behind. We made ourselves vulnerable to political blackmail by allowing ourself to rely too much on resources of people that had our best interests at heart only while it suited them to do so, and a large-scale damage control operation is under way.
It might be worth to remember an another war that occured in Europe, in the 1990s, the dissolution of Yugoslavia that turned into a monumental bloodbath culminating with the genocide of Bosnian Muslims in the small town of Srebrenica. But the response from Europe was a very different one. All we got was an international embargo and a batallion of Dutch soldiers too weak to prevent the catastrophe in Srebrenica.
As Ed Vulliamy remarked in The Observer: “ While the west has armed Ukraine’s resistance, an arms embargo on all sides, as leaders put it, strapped a ball and chain around the embryonic Bosnian partisan army and afforded the aggressor a calculated, overwhelming military advantage. While the nightmare in Ukraine drives the “international community” to seek a solution within three weeks, that in Bosnia was dragged on for three years.”
When put in comparison, the similarities far outweigh the differences between the two conflicts. What makes for a very significant difference though is the international response. The effects are felt to this day, as the country is stuck in a political limbo that only stopped the conflict, but not the ideology behind it.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has been on the waiting list for EU candidacy for many years and it looks rather like an effort not to sell out to dictators like Erdogan or Putin. In the meantime Zelensky managed to rise to candidacy status in a record time. The result is that many don’t want our country to survive at all in the current state of affairs, frozen by corrupt elites that are perfectly fine with it because it’s the only way for them to hang on to positions of power.
This is not to say that Ukrainians do not deserve our help and support. But you don’t need to be a genius to see why everyone is in awe of Zelensky who turned a war into a new Live Aid where he uses every single available platform to promote his cause. Ukrainians and Russians control massive amounts of resources that are necessary for people used to having a lifestyle, meaning the luxury of choice.
Now that it’s slowly fading away beyond the reach of so many, it’s dawning on us that the political algorithm is determined by the amount of collateral damage. That puts a different light onto the conflict. It’s not only a fight between two countries, it’s a fight against a global economic crisis. And everyone’s so involved and supportive because they need food on their plates and gas in their stoves. If that weren’t the case, Zelensky would have probably accepted Biden’s offer for a ride. Instead, he fortunately got what he wanted.
The rest of the world got the most memorable political quip of the 21st century so far. It’s been said so many times that it’s ubiqutous: those who don’t learn from history are deemed to repeat it. And we see why that’s the case, we never seem to learn. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 proved a flame is easily extinguished on a candle, but hard to contain when the candle falls over and sets the curtains on fire.
The Czech representative at the summit in Zagreb is already pleading for an Russian war crime tribunal. Back then in Yugoslavia, the world seemed to be waiting for the dust to settle down before doing this. As a result, many generations of young people in the region are held hostage by the hateful ideologies that keep their focus on the horrors of the past, instead on the promises of future. Healing takes time. It also requires strength and character, because refusing to succumb to hatred and prejudices is the most difficult thing to do when an ability for forgiveness can turn you into an outcast.
Ivo Andrić, the famous writer, said the following about wars: “it’s when the wise fall silent, the idiots speak up.” Hence we need to speak up before they do. If we don’t, we risk a ride to hell. And we’re already on the road. The ship hasn’t left the docks, but it’s about to leave.
